 Gaming: Can the Mid-American Conference Rebound?
2010-07-20 12:47:00
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - The Mid-American Conference came into last season fresh off a 28-21 against the spread mark outside its own league, while going 17-12 against Bowl Championship Series competition. Unfortunately, those solid numbers fell to 21-25-2 and 15-16, respectively, in '09. The probable cause for the decline was lack of experience, as eight of the 13 teams returned fewer than 14 starters. It is true that the conference is fodder for BCS schools, but it also has fared poorly against its own kind, especially in bowl games. The MAC is just 1-12 straight up and 1-10-2 ATS in postseason play since '07, including 1-7 SU and 0-6-2 ATS versus teams from the WAC, Conference USA, Mountain West and the Sun Belt.
Within the league, favorites were 29-22-1, a massive turnaround from years past. Underdogs held the advantage by a 51-42-1 count in '07 and '08 combined.
Time now to take a deeper look into the two divisions that make up the conference with predicted straight-up, overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories.
WEST
6) EASTERN MICHIGAN - The Eagles, who were 4-8 ATS last season, are 4-9 ATS as home underdogs the last four years.
Offense - Not much went right last year after quarterback Andy Schmitt was lost for the season in week three. The Eagles averaged just 14 points per game in league play after going for 26 in '08. Don't expect any sort of resurgence this fall.
Defense - It must have been difficult for head coach Ron English to watch his defense finish dead last nationally vs. the run, allowing 277 yards per game on 6.3 yards per carry. It will be even tougher this season without Brandon Downs, the only player on the team to record more than two sacks (7.5).
Prediction - Get ready for a possible 50-point spread when the Eagles travel to Ohio State on Sept. 25. (0-12, 0-8)
5) WESTERN MICHIGAN - The Broncos were 3-8 ATS in '09, 1-5 in their last six games. They are just 2-7 ATS as road underdogs the last two years.
Offense - One would have expected the offense to flourish in quarterback Tim Hiller's final year but that wasn't the case as almost all passing, scoring, and rushing numbers went south. With Hiller and two-time 1,000-yard rusher Brandon West gone, the offense could suffer even more.
Defense - The Broncos, who came into last season with four new starters in the secondary, were actually hurt by the run, finishing 10th in the league allowing 178 rushing ypg. This year's squad will be without its top three tackles for loss leaders, along with very little experience at cornerback.
Prediction - The Broncos are 5-11-1 in their last 17 league games as favorites. Keep that in mind as they should be the betting choice in at least five of the eight contests. (5-7, 3-5)
4) BALL STATE - The Cardinals went 6-5 ATS in '09, covering three of their last four games. They are 20-6 ATS on the road the last four years.
Offense - Last year was a transitional season for Ball State, as the offensive output dropped from 38 ppg to 20 in league play. Nevertheless, the ground attack improved over the second half of the year with 1,335 yards on 5.3 ypc after rushing for just 578 yards and 3.2 ypc in the first six games. With better quarterback play, the Cardinals offense will average a touchdown more per game in 2010.
Defense - Ball State returned just four of its top nine tacklers last year and it showed, as the unit gave up an average of 28 ppg. This year, seven of the top nine return in the second year of the new defensive system.
Prediction - Six of their 10 Football Bowl Subdivision games are on the road so remember to have some extra cash handy for all of those contests. (5-7, 3-5)
3) CENTRAL MICHIGAN - The Chippewas were 9-3-1 ATS last season. They are 11-2 as home favorites the last four years.
Offense - This year's offensive attack will look nothing like the last four seasons when Dan LeFevour ran the show. In fact, both offenses in the spring game combined for just three points. The switch to a pro-style formation (from the spread) will obviously need time to develop.
Defense - Ten returning starters helped the Chippewas rank first in the league in scoring defense giving up just 19 ppg. On the other hand, they were just 12 yards per game away from finishing sixth in total defense. With only five starters back in 2010 look for the defense to allow at least a touchdown more per game.
Prediction - Wager against the Chippewas early in the season as it will take some time for their new offensive schemes to take shape. (5-7, 4-4)
2) TOLEDO - The Rockets were 5-7 ATS, 1-4 in their last five games. They are 7-18 as road underdogs over the last six years, and 7-17 off a straight-up victory in the last five.
Offense - The Rockets outgained their opponents by an average margin of 438- 407 last year. Unfortunately, they were outscored 38-30. Those offensive numbers could be even higher in 2010 with Austin Dantin at quarterback and former 1,000-yard rusher Morgan Williams taking on more of the load at tailback.
Defense - This is the side of the ball that must progress if Toledo wants to return to the postseason for the first time since 2006. The defense is very young so the improvements might not be seen until 2011, but the players are now in the second year of the new system, so don't be surprised if the Rockets enjoy success a little earlier than expected.
Prediction - Toledo was 8-4 to the over last year. Look for more of the same this season. (7-5, 5-3)
1) NORTHERN ILL - The Huskies were 5-7 ATS last year, 0-4 in their last four games. They are 4-11 ATS as home favorites the last four years.
Offense - Northern Illinois averaged 31 ppg in league play last season, finishing third in both rushing (210 ypg) and quarterback completion percentage (63%). Those numbers will be even stronger in 2010 with added talent at both the running back and wide receiver positions.
Defense - It's not often a coach comes out of spring practices raving about his team the way Jerry Kill did back in April. He was especially ecstatic about the defense, and that was before defensive end Jake Coffman decided to return for his senior season.
Prediction - It will be tough to cash in on the Huskies this year as they should be favored in almost every league game. However, don't be afraid to back them in out-of-conference play. (10-2, 7-1)
EAST
7) BOWLING GREEN - The Falcons went 7-5-1 ATS last season. They are 5-0 ATS as road underdogs the last two years, but 6-14 as home favorites in the last five.
Offense - Bowling Green led the conference in passing last season behind the lethal duo of Tyler Sheehan and Freddie Barnes. Both players have departed, along with three offensive line starters, leaving major holes in the offense.
Defense - The Falcons returned three of their top six tacklers a year ago and still finished 11th in total defense inside the conference. One can only imagine how poorly they will play this season without their top six tacklers.
Prediction - Bet against Bowling Green early and often. (3-9, 3-5)
6) BUFFALO - The Bulls were 4-6-1 ATS in '09. They are 16-7 ATS (70%) as road underdogs the last four years, but 1-6-1 (19%) as conference favorites over the last two.
Offense - With the departure of quarterback Zach Maynard as well as the club's top three reception leaders (164 catches and 18 touchdowns), the Bulls will have a tough time averaging three touchdowns per game.
Defense - Buffalo allowed only 132 rushing ypg last season, by far the lowest total in school history. But the change to a 3-4 could backfire, especially if linebacker Scott Pettigrew misses the year with a knee injury suffered in the spring.
Prediction - The Bulls' solid road underdog record will be put to the test early on with four away games among the first six contests. (4-8, 3-5)
5) AKRON - The Zips went 3-8 ATS last season, 1-5 in their final six games. However, they are 10-5 ATS in non-conference play over the last four seasons.
Offense - Last year's offense was a horror show after Chris Jacquemain's untimely suspension prior to week three. Add in the fact that the top two running backs were plagued with injuries the entire season, and the Zips were only able to muster 19 ppg. Look for a massive upswing in production this year.
Defense - The defense has to improve its pass rush (11 sacks each of the last two years) to ease the burden on an inexperienced secondary that loses three starters. With 11 of the top 14 tacklers back, an opportunity to surprise is well within reach.
Prediction - Opponents might take the Zips lightly this season, which should improve their ATS record from 3-8 to above the .500 mark. (5-7, 3-5)
4) MIAMI-OHIO - The RedHawks finished 5-7 ATS last year, but were 3-2 in their last five games. They are 1-7 ATS as home favorites the last four years.
Offense - Quarterback Zac Dysert progressed nicely as his freshman year moved along, finishing with an 8-5 TD/INT ratio in his final five games after a 3-9 mark in his first four contests. The offensive line returns 80 career starts after beginning last year with just 27 in a brand new system. The RedHawks will have one of the most improved offenses in the country.
Defense - This unit actually finished fifth in total defense in league play last year and that was with a total of 54 career starts from its opening day lineup. This season, the defense returns over 100 career starts and nine of 11 leading tacklers are back as well.
Prediction - Miami was last nationally in turnover margin at -24 last year. With better ball control, look for the RedHawks to be in bowl contention come November. More importantly, since they were 1-11 in '09, they will be getting a ton of points on a week-to-week basis so keep them in mind all season long. (5-7, 4-4)
3) OHIO - The Bobcats were 8-5 ATS last year, 4-1 in their final five games. They are 9-3 ATS as road underdogs over the last five years.
Offense - Ohio enters the season without last year's starting quarterback, leading rusher and receiver. Still, there's a chance the offense could be even better due to the tremendous depth head coach Frank Solich has in Athens.
Defense - The Bobcats ranked second in the league in scoring behind Central Michigan last year. They also were tied for first nationally with 37 takeaways. It's doubtful they will be able to duplicate both feats this season.
Prediction - Ohio has finished above .500 ATS each of the last four years. Don't count on the Bobcats making it five in a row. (7-5, 5-3)
2) TEMPLE - The Owls went 8-4 ATS last season. They are 6-2 ATS in non- conference play over the last two years, and 12-6 under Al Golden off a SU victory.
Offense - Running back Bernard Pierce rushed for 1,361 yards and 16 touchdowns in his freshman season. Nevertheless, he failed to finish one-third of his starts due to injury. His health is important since quarterback Chester Stewart has thrown 10 interceptions in 171 career attempts while failing to garner a completion percentage greater than 55% in seven career starts.
Defense - The Owls allowed just 81 ypg and 2.9 ypc in eight league games last year. Both totals were number one in the conference. Opposing teams could only beat them through the air, and they did so at an alarming rate. Not only did the defense finish last in passing yardage (269 per game), the unit also ranked next-to-last allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61% of their passes.
Prediction - Temple comes into '10 a bit overrated so bet against coach Golden's squad on a weekly basis. (8-4, 6-2)
1) KENT STATE - The Golden Flashes were 6-4-1 ATS in '09. They are 10-5-1 in league play the last two years but 2-7 in non-conference action the last three.
Offense - The scoring average fell from 26 ppg in '08 to 19 ppg last season after injuries to multiple skill position players affected the squad. With the return of running back Eugene Jarvis and the maturation of quarterback Spencer Keith, look for Kent State to climb back to the 25 ppg mark.
Defense - The Golden Flashes allowed 22 ppg last year, a 10-point decrease from two seasons ago. That reduction was partly due to their top seven national ranking inside the red zone. With the return of the top six tacklers, they have arguably the top defense in the division.
Prediction - Kent State has a great chance to go 8-3 ATS, something the team hasn't achieved since the 2003 season. (7-5, 6-2)
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